Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 40.395871 44.110608 48.210795 53.110861 58.859917 65.458362 73.704844
2025-03-02 34.370937 39.125021 44.751258 52.032728 61.415141 73.416085 90.507015
2025-03-09 30.925048 36.135396 42.584647 51.392794 63.527973 80.387982 107.149127
2025-03-16 27.950891 33.232062 39.969754 49.523242 63.339053 83.781176 119.226295
2025-03-23 26.926079 32.632833 40.164050 51.313241 68.396423 95.744288 149.138568
2025-03-30 25.390435 31.180858 39.005094 50.951380 70.057076 102.571594 172.675172
2025-04-06 23.978874 29.762799 37.729953 50.210395 70.912858 108.106474 196.186276
2025-04-13 22.450935 28.068004 35.907378 48.407492 69.684621 109.450509 210.683308
2025-04-20 22.040372 27.898739 36.262772 50.023370 74.563722 123.954262 269.430628
2025-04-27 21.579693 27.615514 36.408606 51.291443 79.014706 139.014603 346.058533
2025-05-04 21.040000 27.175333 36.268986 52.045538 82.601547 153.390699 441.594058
2025-05-11 20.273529 26.351942 35.469054 51.561964 83.611396 161.714595 526.029724
2025-05-18 19.482098 25.480800 34.584231 50.931623 84.420439 170.479547 640.329438
2025-05-25 18.671726 24.544736 33.543250 49.933915 84.319803 176.861359 765.035169
2025-06-01 18.009061 23.799514 32.761544 49.334837 85.009874 186.102186 963.341836
2025-06-08 17.175854 22.754054 31.428040 47.582447 82.781178 185.048453 1055.614006
2025-06-15 17.043197 22.785905 31.873952 49.260323 88.970830 216.600290 2010.154111
2025-06-22 16.559395 22.242345 31.317001 48.921314 90.148375 230.349103 3102.527309
2025-06-29 16.047707 21.632775 30.613558 48.226829 90.303092 240.188885 4824.850180
2025-07-06 15.400496 20.784093 29.460181 46.535420 87.589205 236.087652 5562.743504
2025-07-13 15.316611 20.832331 29.857227 48.051478 93.808532 278.887691 74337.212409
2025-07-20 15.180063 20.787621 30.086190 49.239905 99.445594 326.280900 NaN
2025-07-27 14.976413 20.623385 30.090919 49.946095 103.867522 373.551829 NaN